The Effect of Overconfidence and Underconfidence on Consumer Value

Although the effect of knowledge miscalibration (i.e., the inaccuracy in subjective knowledge relative to objective knowledge) on consumer purchase decisions has been investigated, its effect in the usage stage of consumption is little understood. This paper examines the effect of knowledge miscalibration in terms of both overconfidence (i.e., when subjective knowledge is inflated) and underconfidence (i.e., when subjective knowledge is deflated) on the dimensions of consumer value (i.e., efficiency, excellence, play, and aesthetics). The paper makes the case that overconfidence and underconfidence should be treated separately as they trigger different consumption consequences. Several hypotheses are tested through two studies: a covariance‐based study (Study 1) and an experimental study (Study 2). In Study 1, overconfidence and underconfidence are measured, while in Study 2 they are experimentally manipulated. Findings of both studies show that underconfidence negatively influences efficiency, excellence, and aesthetics, and overconfidence negatively influences play. Also, Study 1 finds a negative effect of underconfidence on play and Study 2 finds a negative effect of overconfidence on excellence and aesthetics. Findings reveal that knowledge miscalibration negatively impacts consumers’ usage experiences. This implies that in designing product or service experiences suppliers benefit from ensuring that consumers achieve a reduced level of knowledge miscalibration.     

Emotional arousal and entrepreneurial outcomes: Combining qualitative methods to elaborate theory

This qualitative study of innovators in the superyacht industry blends longitudinal content analysis with narrative case vignettes to extend nascent theorizing about the antecedents and consequences associated with the arousal of entrepreneurial emotion. The empirically grounded framework induced through our research offers two key theoretical elaborations. First, it extends the existing set of theorized antecedents by highlighting the overlooked roles played by dramatic performances (staged or improvised) and ambient conditions (project, actor and venue considerations). Second, it calls attention to the consequences of emotional arousal for such entrepreneurial outcomes as generating novel solutions to specific problems encountered during the creation process, developing innovative end products, and fostering a general context for innovation.     

Entry,trade costs,and international business cycles

Are firm entry and fixed exporting costs relevant for understanding the international transmission of business cycles? We revisit this question using a model that includes entry, selection to exporting activity, physical capital accumulation and endogenous labor supply. We determine that once the stochastic process for exogenous productivity is calibrated to consider the endogenous dynamics in TFP created by the number of firms and the time series volatility of entry is calibrated to the data, our model yields minimal departures from the Backus et al. (1992) benchmark. The richer model shares all of the successes of the previous model in terms of the volatilities of aggregate quantities, as well as its failures, in terms of replicating patterns of international co-movement and the volatility of international relative prices.     

The Price Discovery Puzzle in Offshore Yuan Trading: Different Contributions for Different Contracts

The People's Bank of China (PBC) lifted yuan trading restrictions in July of 2010 that led to offshore yuan spot trading in Hong Kong. Based on causality analyses, we find that price discovery is absent between the onshore and offshore spot markets. However, we document the presence of price discovery between onshore spot and offshore nondeliverable forward (NDF) rates. These seemingly inconsistent results present a puzzle wherein one offshore market appears to be more informationally integrated with the onshore market than another. We conclude that price discovery differences in the offshore markets stem from the offshore spot and forward contracts tracking different aspects of yuan rates (e.g., the offshore nondeliverable rate tracks onshore spot rates whereas the offshore spot rate tracks onshore interest rates). Moreover, the introduction of offshore spot trading in Hong Kong has led to an increase in cross‐market price discovery between onshore spot and offshore NDF rates. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 34:103–123, 2014     

A Filtering Process to Remove the Stochastic Component from Intraday Seasonal Volatility

The intraday seasonal variance pattern contains stochastic as well as deterministic components. Therefore, the estimation of information arrivals in the associated volatility process requires the proper filtering of both of these seasonal components. However, popular current models remove only the deterministic part of the typical U‐shape volatility. Here, we provide the first empirical results of the importance of the stochastic component, as developed by Cho and Daigler (2012). We show that a highly significant additional 8.5% to 12.9% of the total seasonal variance is explained by the stochastic seasonal variance component for S&P500 futures, live cattle futures, and the Japanese yen‐U.S. dollar spot exchange rate. Moreover, we show that the stochastic seasonal filtering model implemented here does not create any statistical distortions of the filtered series, as occurs with deterministic‐based seasonal adjustment processes, as well as comparing the model examined here with the most popular current deterministic model. As part of our analysis we examine the application of the model to macroeconomic news and out‐of‐sample results for the model. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 34:479–495, 2014     

The Return‐Implied Volatility Relation for Commodity ETFs

We examine the return‐implied volatility relation by employing “commodity” option VIXs for the euro, gold, and oil. This relation is substantially weaker than for stock indexes. We propose several potential reasons for these unusually weak results. Also, gold possesses an unusual positive contemporaneous return coefficient, which is consistent with a demand volatility skew rather than the typical investment skew. Moreover, the euro and gold are not asymmetric. We relate the results to trading strategies, algorithmic trading, and behavioral theories. An important conclusion of the study is that important differences exist regarding implied volatility for certain types of assets that have not yet been explained in the literature; namely, the results in this study concerning commodity ETFs versus stock indexes, plus previous research on stock indexes versus individual stocks, and the pricing of stock index options versus individual stock options. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 34:261–281, 2014     

Going for gold: Investigating the (non)sense of increased advertising around major sports events

Major sports events draw unsurpassed media attention. Companies are motivated to increase their advertising investments around these events to reach large audiences in a short period. Is such an advertising surge actually beneficial though, or should companies avoid advertising in these periods because of negative effects of competitive interference? This study investigates when consumer packaged goods companies should invest in advertising to increase sales: before, during, or after the event or outside these event periods. The author estimates short- and long-term own- and cross-advertising elasticities for 206 brands using four years of weekly data. Although considerable heterogeneity exists across brands, own-advertising effectiveness diminishes especially before and during major sports events, in both the short and the long run. In addition, brands benefit less from category-demand effects through competitors' advertising. Conversely, greater increases in advertising spending resulting in significant growth in share of voice around focused, single-sport events are a successful strategy to overcome this overall general negative trend.